1990—2021年亚洲经前期综合征疾病负担现况分析及对其未来15年的预测-东南大学学报医学版

1990—2021年亚洲经前期综合征疾病负担现况分析及对其未来15年的预测

单位：1. 南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院妇科, 江苏南京 210008;
2. 南京医科大学第四附属医院妇产科, 江苏南京 210031

分类号：R711.51

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·44·第六期（915-923）

摘要：

目的: 探讨经前期综合征(PMS)在亚洲地区的流行情况及疾病负担并进行系统性评估。方法: 基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(GBD)数据,对1990—2021年间亚洲地区48个国家PMS的疾病负担情况进行分析。通过年均百分比变化(EAPC)评估PMS疾病负担的变化趋势,采用斜率不平等指数(SII)和集中指数(CIX)评估PMS相关的健康不平等。此外,利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型对未来15年PMS疾病负担进行预测。结果: 2021年PMS发病数及患病数较1990年分别增长38.5%、47.7%,但年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)及年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)的EAPC分别为-0.00(95%CI:-0.03~0.03)、-0.00(95% CI:-0.04~0.02)。ASIR的EAPC分析显示,巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和也门的PMS疾病负担显著增加,而韩国、中国和泰国则显著下降,其中巴勒斯坦为0.30(95% CI: 0.28~0.33),中国为-0.19(95% CI:-0.26~-0.11)。通过健康不平等分析发现亚洲地区PMS疾病负担与社会人口学指数(SDI)呈负相关,其负担出现向低SDI国家转移趋势且健康不平等性有所加剧。BAPC预测结果显示未来15年内PMS疾病负担呈现轻度上升趋势。结论: 亚洲地区的PMS疾病负担呈现出复杂的地理与社会经济差异,且随着时间推移低收入国家的负担呈上升趋势。

Objective: To systematically evaluate the epidemiology and disease burden of premenstrual syndrome(PMS) in Asian countries. Methods: The PMS burden across 48 countries in Asia from 1990 to 2021 was nanlyzed using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database. The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC) was used to assess temporal trends, while the slope index of inequality(SII) and concentration index were applied to quantify health inequalities. In addition, Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC) model was employed to project PMS burden over the next 15 years. Results: Compared with 1990, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases in 2021 increased by 38.5% and 47.7%, respectively; however, the EAPC of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR) were -0.00(95% CI: -0.03 to 0.03) and -0.00(95% CI: -0.04 to 0.02). Analysis of EAPC of ASIR showed substantial increases of disease burden of PMS in Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen, but marked declines in South Korea, China, and Thailand[Palestine: 0.30(95% CI: 0.28 to 0.33); China: -0.19(95% CI: -0.26 to -0.11)]. Health inequality analyses revealed a negative correlation between PMS burden and the sociodemographic index(SDI), with a shift of disease burden toward low-SDI countries and a widening of health inequalities. BAPC projections indicated that the PMS burden in Asia will show a mild upward trend over the next 15 years. Conclusion: The burden of PMS in Asia exhibits marked geographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Over time, the disease burden has increasingly shifted toward low-income countries.

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